A bio-economic model to simulate farmers behaviour in a Mediterranean desertification risky area: data needs and empirical evidences

Farmers, actors that use soil at most, take decision on land use considering many aspects, from the strictly economics to the biological ones. Traditionally, behavioural models only consider markets factors combined such a manner to maximize a farm profit function. Differently from many other sectors, most European farms are managed by family, which often own the land they use. Given the small size, many of these family farms allow some of the family members to work outside the farm. Their decision on resource allocation is even more complex than the usual maximization process, tipycal of any enterprise. When soil degradation, or other environmental concerns, coming into account, then the behavioural patterns of this farmers became a very difficult task. By using the theory of Agricultural household model and empirical evidences on vegetation impact on soil degradation, a theoretical model has been developed and pre-assessed in a typical Mediterranean risky area. Then the interpreting and simulation ability and data need have been described

Designing a Public Web-Based Information System to Illustrate and Disseminate the Development and Results of the DESIRE Project to Combat Desertification

Until around 1995 it was challenging to make the scientific results of research projects publicly available except through presentations at meetings or conferences, or as papers in academic journals. Then it began to be clear that the Internet could become the main medium to publish and share new information with a much wider audience. The DESIRE Project (desertification mitigation and remediation of land—a global approach for local solutions) has built on expertise gained in previous projects to develop an innovative online ‘Harmonized Information System’ (HIS). This documents the context, delivery and evaluation of all tasks in the DESIRE Project using non-scientific terminology, with much of it also available in the local languages of the study sites. The DESIRE-HIS makes use of new possibilities for communication, including video clips, interactive tools, and links to social media networks such as Twitter. Dissemination of research results using this approach has required careful planning and design. This paper sets out the steps that have culminated in a complete online Information System about local solutions to global land management problems in desertification-affected areas, including many practical guidelines for responsible land management. As many of those who are affected by desertification do not have Internet access, printable dissemination materials are also available on the DESIREHIS

Land Resource Depletion, Regional Disparities, and the Claim for a Renewed ???Sustainability Thinking??? under Early Desertification Conditions

The present contribution discusses recent findings in environmental issues dealing with desertification risk and regional disparities in the Mediterranean basin. By focusing on key socioeconomic factors underlying land and soil degradation (population growth, urban sprawl, coastalization, agricultural intensification, and land abandonment), this commentary highlights the intimate linkage between socioeconomic processes, rural poverty, and territorial disparities based on complex dynamics of demographic and economic factors. The increasing complexity in the spatial distribution of land vulnerable to degradation has also been pointed out with special reference to post-war Italy, a Mediterranean country considered as particularly affected in the UNCCD Annex IV, as the results of non-linear biophysical and socioeconomic dynamics. The lack in multi-target and multi-scale policies approaching land degradation and territorial disparities together is finally discussed as an original contribution to the study of Mediterranean desertification

Mixed Land Use as an Intrinsic Feature of Sprawl: A Short-Term Analysis of Settlement Growth and Population Distribution Using European Urban Atlas

This study investigates the land-use/population mix over time as the base to derive an indicator of urban sprawl. Land-use individual patches (provided by Urban Atlas, hereafter UA, with a detailed spatial geometry at 1:10,000 scale) were associated with the total (resident) population based on official statistics (census enumeration districts and other public data sources), providing a comprehensive mapping of the spatial distribution of population density by land-use class in a representative case study for the Mediterranean region (metropolitan Athens, Greece). Data analysis adopted a mix of statistical techniques, such as descriptive statistics, non-parametric curve interpolation (smoothing splines), and exploratory multivariate statistics, namely hierarchical clustering, non-metric multi-dimensional scaling and confirmative factor analysis. The results of this study indicate a non-linear gradient of density decline from downtown (dominated by compact settlements) to peripheral locations (dominated by natural land). Population density in agricultural land was locally high and increasing over time; this result suggests how mixed land use may be the base of intense sprawl in large metropolitan regions. The methodology implemented in this study can be generalized over the whole sample of European cities included in Urban Atlas, providing a semi-automatic assessment of exurban development and population re-distribution over larger metropolitan regions

Climate Aridity and the Geographical Shift of Olive Trees in a Mediterranean Northern Region

[EN] Climate change leverages landscape transformations and exerts variable pressure on natural environments and rural systems. Earlier studies outlined how Mediterranean Europe has become a global hotspot of climate warming and land use change. The present work assumes the olive tree, a typical Mediterranean crop, as a candidate bioclimatic indicator, delineating the latent impact of climate aridity on traditional cropping systems at the northern range of the biogeographical distribution of the olive tree. Since the olive tree follows a well-defined latitude gradient with a progressive decline in both frequency and density moving toward the north, we considered Italy as an appropriate case to investigate how climate change may (directly or indirectly) influence the spatial distribution of this crop. By adopting an exploratory approach grounded in the quali-quantitative analysis of official statistics, the present study investigates long-term changes over time in the spatial distribution of the olive tree surface area in Northern Italy, a region traditionally considered outside the ecological range of the species because of unsuitable climate conditions. Olive tree cultivated areas increased in Northern Italy, especially in flat districts and upland areas, while they decreased in Central and Southern Italy under optimal climate conditions, mostly because of land abandonment. The most intense expansion of the olive tree surface area in Italy was observed in the northern region between 1992 and 2000 and corresponded with the intensification of winter droughts during the late 1980s and the early 1990s and local warming since the mid-1980s. Assuming the intrinsic role of farmers in the expansion of the olive tree into the suboptimal land of Northern Italy, the empirical results of our study suggest how climate aridity and local warming may underlie the shift toward the north in the geographical range of the olive tree in the Mediterranean Basin. We finally discussed the implications of the olive range shift as a part of a possible landscape scenario for a more arid future.Rodrigo-Comino, J.; Salvia, R.; Quaranta, G.; Cudlín, P.; Salvati, L.; Giménez Morera, A. (2021). Climate Aridity and the Geographical Shift of Olive Trees in a Mediterranean Northern Region. Climate. 9(4):1-18. https://doi.org/10.3390/cli9040064S1189

High-to-Low (Regional) Fertility Transitions in a Peripheral European Country: The Contribution of Exploratory Time Series Analysis

[EN] Diachronic variations in demographic rates have frequently reflected social transformations and a (more or less evident) impact of sequential economic downturns. By assessing changes over time in Total Fertility Rate (TFR) at the regional scale in Italy, our study investigates the long-term transition (1952-2019) characteristic of Mediterranean fertility, showing a continuous decline of births since the late 1970s and marked disparities between high- and low-fertility regions along the latitude gradient. Together with a rapid decline in the country TFR, the spatiotemporal evolution of regional fertility in Italy-illustrated through an exploratory time series statistical approach-outlines the marked divide between (wealthier) Northern regions and (economically disadvantaged) Southern regions. Non-linear fertility trends and increasing spatial heterogeneity in more recent times indicate the role of individual behaviors leveraging a generalized decline in marriage and childbearing propensity. Assuming differential responses of regional fertility to changing socioeconomic contexts, these trends are more evident in Southern Italy than in Northern Italy. Reasons at the base of such fertility patterns were extensively discussed focusing-among others-on the distinctive contribution of internal and international migrations to regional fertility rates. Based on these findings, Southern Italy, an economically disadvantaged, peripheral region in Mediterranean Europe, is taken as a paradigmatic case of demographic shrinkage-whose causes and consequences can be generalized to wider contexts in (and outside) Europe.Rodrigo-Comino, J.; Egidi, G.; Salvati, L.; Quaranta, G.; Salvia, R.; Giménez Morera, A. (2021). High-to-Low (Regional) Fertility Transitions in a Peripheral European Country: The Contribution of Exploratory Time Series Analysis. Data. 6(2):1-14. https://doi.org/10.3390/data6020019S1146

Recession, Local Fertility, and Urban Sustainability: Results of a Quasi-Experiment in Greece, 1991-2018

[EN] Fertility is a spatially non-stationary property of regional demographic systems. Despite the wealth of quantitative (micro-macro) information delineating short-term population dynamics in advanced economies, the contribution of economic downturns to local fertility has still been under-investigated along urban-rural gradients, especially in low-fertility contexts. Recent studies have assumed suburban fertility rates as systematically higher than urban and rural fertility rates. This assumption (hereafter known as the "suburban fertility hypothesis") has been grounded on stylized facts and spatial regularities in advanced economies that reflect a significant role of both macro (contextual) and micro (behavioral) factors that positively influence fertility in suburban locations. To test the suburban fertility hypothesis at the macro-scale, the present study compares gross fertility rates from seven regional units of the Athens metropolitan area between 1991 and 2018. A refined spatial analysis of gross fertility rates during an economic expansion (1999-2008) and recession (2009-2018) was carried out in 115 urban, suburban, and rural municipalities of the same area. Experiencing sequential waves of economic expansion and recession, Athens' socio-demographic dynamics were considered a sort of "quasi-experiment" for Southern Europe, linking late suburbanization with the multiple impacts of (rapid) economic downturns. Compared with both urban and rural locations, a higher fertility rate in suburban municipalities (15-20 km away from downtown Athens) was observed during the study period. However, a subtle distinction was observed during the economic expansion versus the recession. In the first period, the highest birth rates were recorded in industrial locations west of Athens, hosting economically disadvantaged communities with a relatively young population structure. With the recession, the highest fertility was associated with residential and service-specialized (wealthier) locations east of Athens, attracting resident population from neighboring areas, and better responding to crisis. The results of our study document how recent urban expansion and economic downturns have intrinsically shaped fertility dynamics, with implications for urban sustainability and social cohesion of metropolitan regions.Halbac-Cotoara-Zamfir, R.; Egidi, G.; Salvia, R.; Salvati, L.; Sateriano, A.; Giménez Morera, A. (2021). Recession, Local Fertility, and Urban Sustainability: Results of a Quasi-Experiment in Greece, 1991-2018. Sustainability. 13(3):1-18. https://doi.org/10.3390/su13031052S11813

Toward a New Urban Cycle? A Closer Look to Sprawl,Demographic Transitions and the Environment in Europe

[EN] Urban growth is a largely debated issue in social science. Specific forms of metropolitan expansion-including sprawl-involve multiple and fascinating research dimensions, making mixed (quali-quantitative) analysis of this phenomenon particularly complex and challenging at the same time. Urban sprawl has attracting the attention of multidisciplinary studies defining nature, dynamics, and consequences that dispersed low-density settlements are having on biophysical and socioeconomic contexts worldwide. The present commentary provides a brief overview on nature and implications of the latent relationship between sprawl, demographic dynamics, and background socio-environmental contexts with special focus on Europe. Empirical evidence supports the idea that spatial planning should cope more effectively with the increasing environmental and socioeconomic exposure of European regions to sprawl and demographic transitions, being progressively far away from a traditional urban cycle with sequential waves of urbanization, suburbanization, counter-urbanization, and re-urbanization. Growing socio-ecological vulnerability of metropolitan regions was evaluated based on a literature review demonstrating how a better comprehension of the intimate linkage between long-term demographic dynamics and urban cycles is necessary to inform fine-tuned policies controlling sprawl and promoting a sustainable management of peri-urban land.Smiraglia, D.; Salvati, L.; Egidi, G.; Salvia, R.; Giménez Morera, A.; Halbac-Cotoara-Zamfir, R. (2021). Toward a New Urban Cycle? A Closer Look to Sprawl,Demographic Transitions and the Environment in Europe. Land. 10(2):1-14. https://doi.org/10.3390/land10020127S11410